酒鬼酒：2024年中报点评：着眼长期，转型攻坚

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation with a focus on long-term growth despite facing significant revenue declines in the first half of 2024. The revenue for H1 2024 was 994 million yuan, down 35.5% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, down 71.32% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is committed to controlling the distribution of its products and focusing on core products to stabilize pricing and improve market presence. The revenue from its main product lines has shown varying performance, with some segments experiencing significant declines while others, like Xiangquan, have seen growth [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For H1 2024, the company's total revenue was 994 million yuan, a decrease of 35.5% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was estimated at 500 million yuan, down 13.27% year-on-year. The net profit for Q2 2024 was approximately 48 million yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [2] - The company has implemented strict controls on the distribution of its products, particularly the Inner Reference brand, which saw a revenue decline of 60.8% in H1 2024. The company is focusing on core products and reducing the rebate ratio for distributors to stabilize pricing [2][3] Cost Structure and Margins - The gross profit margin has been negatively impacted by a shift in product mix, leading to a decline in profitability. The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 9.5%, down 11.6 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for H1 2024 decreased by 6.8 percentage points [2][3] - The company has increased its sales expenses by 5.7 percentage points to 35.5% in Q2 2024, primarily due to upfront investments in consumer marketing and promotional activities [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its marketing transformation, focusing on deepening its presence in key markets and providing targeted services to important customers. The forecast for net profit for 2024 to 2026 is 306 million yuan, 354 million yuan, and 427 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -44%, +16%, and +21% [3] - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 37, 32, and 26 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential for future growth as the company stabilizes its operations [3]