盐湖股份：钾锂战略资源龙头，央企入主潜力可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company, leveraging the strong endowment of the Chaka Salt Lake, maintains robust profitability in its potash business, contributing stable cash flow. The lithium business shows significant volume elasticity and expansion potential, especially with the anticipated entry of the central enterprise China Minmetals, which is expected to enhance the company's long-term development space, combining both value and growth [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1958, the company has become the leading developer of salt lake potash and lithium resources in China, with a strong focus on potash fertilizer since its inception. It is currently the largest producer of potassium chloride in the country, with a production scale of 5 million tons per year, accounting for over 42% of the national total capacity [5][15]. Resource Endowment - The Chaka Salt Lake is the largest potash, magnesium, and lithium salt deposit in China, with abundant resource reserves. The company controls over 63% of the development rights of the Chaka Salt Lake, which is crucial for its stable long-term development in the potassium and lithium sectors [5][28]. Potash Business - The company's potash assets have maintained a gross margin of no less than 55% over the past 20 years, making it a "cash cow" in the A-share chemical sector. Despite cyclical fluctuations, the performance of its potash business remains relatively stable compared to other chemical enterprises [6][23]. Lithium Business - The company has been a pioneer in the lithium extraction industry, establishing Blue Lithium in 2007 to explore lithium extraction from brine. With nearly 20 years of R&D, the company has overcome challenges in extracting lithium from low-lithium brine and is expected to triple its lithium salt production capacity to 61,000 tons by 2025 [5][15][20]. Strategic Cooperation - The strategic cooperation with China Minmetals is expected to enhance the company's operational vitality and facilitate resource integration in the Chaka Salt Lake, potentially leading to an upgrade from a state-owned enterprise to a central enterprise [16][19]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.506 billion, 5.197 billion, and 5.678 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 17X, 15X, and 13X [8][23].