上海莱士：业绩稳增，发展进入高质量新周期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth and is entering a new high-quality development cycle [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 4.252 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.02%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.241 billion yuan, up by 0.15% [1] - The company’s gross margin is 40.88%, and the net profit margin is 29.19% [1] - The company has a leading position in the industry, and with Haier Group becoming the controlling shareholder, it is expected to continue to receive support and synergies that will enhance its performance [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.196 billion yuan, an increase of 19.51%, and a net profit of 484 million yuan, a decrease of 7% [1] - The company’s main non-operating income includes a one-time government subsidy of 33.33 million yuan and investment income from financial assets amounting to 179 million yuan [1] - The company’s self-produced albumin, imported albumin, immunoglobulin, and other blood products generated revenues of 800 million, 1.955 billion, 839 million, and 607 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.21%, 18.87%, -15.50%, and 15.69% [1] - The company’s gross margins for these products were 46.21%, 17.86%, 58.73%, and 83.31% respectively [1] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 8.538 billion yuan in 2024, 9.678 billion yuan in 2025, and 10.914 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 13.4%, and 12.8% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.292 billion yuan in 2024, 2.603 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.937 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 28.8%, 13.6%, and 12.8% respectively [2] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 40.6% in 2024, with slight improvements in subsequent years [2] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 1.537 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.292 billion yuan [4] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 29.63 in 2024 to 16.18 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 7.2% in 2024 to 7.8% in 2026 [5]