太阳纸业：Q2盈利略回落，浆价下行看好2H盈利回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 20.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.758 billion RMB, up 40.49% year-on-year [2]. - The second quarter saw a slight decline in profitability, but the outlook for H2 is optimistic due to expected recovery in earnings driven by lower pulp prices [2][3]. - The company is diversifying its product range and expanding its production capacity, which is expected to stabilize earnings amid market fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.34 billion RMB, an 8.41% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 800 million RMB, reflecting a 16.9% increase year-on-year but a 16.1% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 17.57%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for non-coated cultural paper, boxboard paper, and dissolving pulp at 18.0%, 14.6%, and 21.0% respectively [2]. Market Outlook - The cultural paper market is entering a traditional peak season, with prices expected to stabilize after previous declines, supported by lower pulp costs and inventory consumption [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 300,000-ton life paper project expected to start production in Q3 2024, and a second phase in Nanning aimed at producing specialty paper and chemical pulp [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.4 billion RMB, 3.89 billion RMB, and 4.31 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [4].