M&G(603899) 民生证券·2024-08-29 03:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Chenguang Stationery (603899 SH) [1][2] Core Views - Chenguang achieved steady growth across all business segments in H1 2024, with traditional core business growing 9% and new business growing 12% year-over-year [1] - The company is developing high-functionality, high-quality core products while also expanding into trendy cultural and creative products [1] - International markets, particularly Africa and Southeast Asia, are emerging as new growth drivers, with overseas revenue reaching 480 million yuan in H1 2024, up 14 8% year-over-year [1] - The company is focusing on premiumization through its Jiuzhi brand and optimizing its supply chain through digital transformation [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 11 051 billion yuan, up 10 95% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to parent company of 633 million yuan, up 4 71% [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 5 566 billion yuan, up 9 58% year-over-year, but net profit declined 6 59% to 253 million yuan due to increased bad debt provisions and equity incentive expenses [1] - Gross margin in Q2 2024 was 18 66%, down 0 70 percentage points year-over-year, with net margin at 4 76%, down 0 96 percentage points [1] Business Segments - Core product categories showed mixed performance in Q2 2024: writing instruments grew 13 0%, student stationery declined 0 3%, office supplies grew 4 7%, other products surged 27 9%, and Kelipu grew 11 2% [1] - Kelipu, the B2B office supply platform, achieved revenue of 3 17 billion yuan in Q2 2024, with a net profit margin of 2 16% [1] - Retail stores generated 357 million yuan in Q2 2024 revenue, up 19 0% year-over-year, with a net profit margin of 1 23% [1] Future Outlook - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue growth of 16 8%, 16 0%, and 18 8% respectively, with net profit growth of 19 1%, 11 9%, and 21 0% [2] - Expected 2024-2026 EPS are 1 65, 1 85, and 2 24 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [2] - The company is expected to maintain stable gross margins around 18 8%-19 1% and net margins around 6 3%-6 5% from 2024-2026 [5]