中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 2026年轻纺新消费年度策略：立足优质供给，强则不败 2 0 2 5 . 1 2 . 1 6 张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 核心观点 立足消费预期重大分歧此刻，我们坚定看好立足于优质供给的消费赛道新机遇： 1）"新消费升级"不止于2025。 新消费的本质是供给驱动的一轮"新消费升级"。不同于16-20年的上一轮消费升级，背后是投资、金融驱动的提价逻辑，本轮新消费升级的内 核是优质供给。存量时代，优质供给不单是制造的降本和"内卷"，而是创新和用户思维：从发现新需求入手，实现和消费者的双向奔赴。除 了IP潮玩、宠物等已被市场认知的成功范式，我们还看到：科技睡眠、人体工学椅、户外运动（港股运动）、IP文具等品类的蓬勃势头。立足 2026年，我们会看到更多优质供给和需求的拟合，供给驱动的新消费升级不会止步于2025。 2）从"反内卷"到"向外 ...

格隆汇12月10日丨晨光股份(603899.SH)在互动平台表示，公司旗下九木杂物社有销售外采的疯狂动物 城各类周边衍生品。 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential of overseas markets and selective domestic demand as key investment themes for 2026, highlighting the high certainty of performance growth driven by international expansion and the favorable valuation of core targets [2][4][8]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among leading companies in the new consumption sector, with a focus on those capable of overseas production and distribution [8]. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a growth of approximately 12% from January to November 2025, ranking 17th among 31 sub-sectors [12][18]. - Key drivers for the sector's performance included asset restructuring and the emergence of new consumption trends, particularly in segments like tiles, flooring, and home furnishings [12][18]. Sub-industry Investment Recommendations - **Packaging**: Companies like Yutong, Inke, and Baosteel are recommended for their strong overseas delivery capabilities and cost advantages [8]. - **Export**: Companies with robust overseas manufacturing and multi-market operations, such as Gongchuang Turf and Yongyi Co., are highlighted [8]. - **Paper**: The report suggests investing in leading firms like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, as the paper cycle is at a low point with price increases expected [8]. - **Pet Products**: The sector is anticipated to stabilize, with recommendations for brands transitioning to premium products, such as Yiyi Co. [8]. - **Trendy Toys**: Companies like Pop Mart are recommended due to their strong market position and expansion potential in overseas markets [8]. - **Tobacco**: The report is optimistic about the HNB industry and recommends companies like Smoore International [8]. - **Home Furnishings**: Despite ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, companies like Bull Group and Gujia Home are expected to find growth opportunities [8]. - **Personal Care**: The report sees potential in brands adapting to online strategies and new retail channels, recommending companies like Baiya Co. and Dengkang Oral [8]. Financial Performance Review - The packaging and printing sector showed strong recovery with double-digit growth, while the personal care sector experienced structural differentiation in performance [22][23]. - The report provides a detailed financial performance overview, indicating a recovery in revenue growth and profitability metrics across various segments [23][24]. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.08% in Q3 2025, with notable declines in the paper, packaging, and personal care segments [28][31]. - Leading companies in fund holdings include Pop Mart, Sun Paper, and Xiangxin Home, reflecting investor sentiment towards growth-oriented firms [31][33].

内容概要：庞大的学生群体构成了我国书写工具市场的刚性基本盘，而素质教育的深入推进让书法专用 笔、美术创作笔等细分品类获得了更广阔的成长空间，与此同时，职场人士对书写工具的需求正从单纯 的"好用"向"质感"与"个性"延伸，兼具设计感与功能性的产品逐渐成为办公场景的新选择，为中高端书 写工具市场注入持续动力，据统计，2024年我国书写工具销售额达247.32亿元，同比增长1.8%，其中， 钢笔占45.8%，书写辅助用品占22.9%，彩色笔占13.7%，记号笔与荧光笔占10.8%，铅笔占6.8%。 上市企业：晨光股份（603899）、齐心集团（002301）、广博股份（002103） 相关企业：得力集团有限公司、温州市爱好笔业有限公司、真彩文具股份有限公司、广东金万年文具有 限公司、广东宝克文具有限公司、青岛昌隆文具有限公司、上海英雄（集团）有限公司、广东乐普升文 具有限公司、中国第一铅笔有限公司、上海金皇冠金笔有限公司、上海白金制笔有限公司 关键词：书写工具行业发展历程、书写工具产业链图谱、书写工具销售额、书写工具竞争格局、书写工 具发展趋势 一、概述 书写工具是用于书写、绘画、标记的器具，核心功能是通过痕迹留存 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the quality inspection results of student supplies in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, highlighting the importance of product safety and compliance with national standards [3][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The student supplies market is a significant segment of the stationery industry, encompassing various products such as art supplies, writing instruments, and notebooks [3]. - China is the largest producer of stationery globally, accounting for over 60% of the trade volume, making it a crucial sector in the light industry [4]. - The stationery industry in China has developed rapidly over the past 40 years, forming distinct industrial clusters, particularly in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces [4]. Group 2: Quality Inspection Findings - A total of 100 batches were inspected, with 4 batches found to be non-compliant, resulting in a non-compliance rate of 4% [7]. - The non-compliance issues included problems with the inner core weight, page count, brightness, and adhesive properties of notebooks, as well as the presence of phthalate plasticizers in accessible plastic parts [7][12]. - Specific issues identified included: - Two batches failed to meet the required paper weight standards, which could lead to damage during use [8]. - One batch had fewer pages than the standard requirement, increasing consumer costs due to frequent replacements [9]. - Two batches exhibited excessive fluorescence brightness, potentially causing eye discomfort for students [10]. - One batch did not meet the adhesive quality standards, affecting writing performance [11]. - One batch exceeded the allowable limits for phthalate plasticizers, which could pose health risks [12]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The inspections were conducted based on several national standards, including GB21027-2020 and GB40070-2021, which outline safety and health requirements for student supplies [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The global IP toy market is projected to reach 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7%, and is expected to grow to 771.7 billion yuan by 2029 [3][12] - The Chinese IP toy market is anticipated to reach 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a year-on-year rate of 29.2%, and is expected to reach 167.5 billion yuan by 2029 [3][13] - Generation Z is becoming the main consumer group, accounting for over 70% of the market, driven by emotional attachment, social needs, and companionship attributes [3][18] - The core competitiveness of the trendy toy industry lies in IP, with the highest cumulative revenue IP, Pokémon, reaching 98.9 billion USD [3][29] - The industry is witnessing a diversification of competition, with domestic IP gradually rising, and the market is still in a rapid development phase [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Expansion and Consumer Demographics - The trendy toy market is expanding, with Generation Z becoming the primary consumer group [3][12] - The market structure is becoming more balanced, with static and movable dolls experiencing the fastest growth [3][13] 2. Value Transformation and Industry Trends - Leading IPs are enriching their cultural content through various media, creating a cross-media IP content ecosystem [3][4] - Companies are actively expanding their IP value transformation paths, achieving multi-category expansion and full ecosystem construction [3][4] 3. Full Industry Chain Coverage - The trend indicates that trendy toy companies are evolving from single-point breakthroughs to full industry chain layouts [3][4] - Companies like Disney and LEGO have achieved full chain layouts, while others are still working on their weaknesses [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with full industry chain layouts such as Pop Mart, and those transforming retail into IP like Miniso and Morning Glory [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance and trading activity of Morning Glory Co., Ltd. indicate a mixed outlook, with slight revenue growth but a decline in net profit, alongside significant trading volumes in margin financing and securities lending [1][2][3]. Financing Activity - On November 20, Morning Glory's financing buy-in amounted to 8.71 million yuan, with a net buy of 1.89 million yuan after 6.82 million yuan in repayments [1] - The total margin financing balance reached 200 million yuan, representing 0.77% of the circulating market value, which is above the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] - The securities lending activity showed a repayment of 5,200 shares and a sell-off of 100 shares, with a remaining balance of 21,270 shares valued at approximately 603,270 yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Morning Glory reported a revenue of 17.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.18% to 948 million yuan [2] - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 4.70 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.12 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 40,000, with an average of 23,002 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous period [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Invesco Great Wall New Growth Mixed Fund holds 31.50 million shares, remaining unchanged, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 1.13 million shares to 27.67 million shares [3]

Market Overview - The entertainment products sector experienced a decline of 0.61% on November 19, with Qunxing Toys leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.09, unchanged [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the entertainment products sector showed varied performance, with Qixin Group rising by 9.96% to a closing price of 8.17 [1] - Other notable performers included Chenguang Co. with a 0.99% increase and Yuanfei Pet with a 0.83% increase [1] - Conversely, stocks like Gaole Co. and Shifeng Culture saw declines of 0.42% and 0.60%, respectively [1] Trading Volume and Value - Qixin Group had a trading volume of 360,100 shares, resulting in a transaction value of approximately 294 million [1] - The overall trading volume and transaction values for other stocks in the sector varied, with Jinling Sports recording a transaction value of 314 million [1] Capital Flow - The entertainment products sector saw a net inflow of 42.68 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 72.60 million [2] - The sector's capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with institutional investors showing confidence [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Qixin Group attracted a significant net inflow of 94.99 million from institutional investors, while retail investors showed a net outflow of 40.27 million [3] - Jinling Sports also saw a net inflow of 39.42 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 60.51 million from retail investors [3] - Other stocks like Shifeng Culture and Gaole Co. had varying levels of net inflow and outflow, reflecting diverse investor sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The COP30 conference in Brazil highlighted the engagement of Chinese youth in climate discussions, showcasing their genuine concerns and questions about climate change, which resonated with international representatives [1][2][3]. Group 1: Youth Engagement and Questions - A student from Shanghai raised a question about the increasing severity of extreme weather, reflecting the concerns of the younger generation regarding climate change [1]. - The interactive question area set up by Morning Glory allowed students to express their thoughts on environmental issues, creating a unique dialogue between generations [2]. - International representatives responded positively to the children's questions, indicating a meaningful cross-generational dialogue on climate action [2][3]. Group 2: Morning Glory's Sustainable Initiatives - Morning Glory launched a series of sustainable products inspired by rare animals, utilizing recycled materials and achieving carbon neutrality throughout the product lifecycle [3][4]. - The company has committed to donating 1% of sales from its new eco-friendly product line to environmental organizations, promoting consumer participation in sustainability [5]. - Morning Glory's ESG strategy includes a clear roadmap for sustainable development, aiming for 100% of new products to undergo sustainability assessments by 2030 [6][8]. Group 3: Achievements and Recognition - Morning Glory has made significant progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the use of renewable energy, with a target of a 46.4% reduction in emissions by 2024 [8][9]. - The company has received international recognition for its sustainability efforts, achieving a "B" rating from CDP and aiming for an "AA" rating from MSCI by 2025 [9]. - The initiatives taken by Morning Glory are seen as a model for integrating sustainability into everyday consumer choices, reinforcing the importance of environmental responsibility [9].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Electric Power Investment Energy plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyin Hwa Coal Power for 11.149 billion yuan, which will enhance the company's coal, electricity, and aluminum advantages [4][5][6] - Baiyin Hwa Coal Power has significant assets, including an annual lignite production capacity of 15 million tons, 192 MW of installed power generation capacity, and an aluminum production capacity of 40,530 tons per year [6][7] - The acquisition is expected to increase the company's profit by over 30%, with Baiyin Hwa Coal Power contributing approximately 20 billion yuan to net profit in 2025 [7][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the top-level design continues to support the development of energy storage, with rising prices for hexafluorophosphate [9][10] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing significant fluctuations, but there is confidence in supply-side reforms, which are expected to improve industry conditions [9][10] - Wind power projects are anticipated to accelerate due to favorable pricing policies, with a projected annual demand of around 140 GW for wind turbines during the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][12] Group 3 - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a notable growth in retail and logistics segments [19][20][21] - The retail segment's revenue grew by 11% to 250.6 billion yuan, driven by high growth in daily necessities and advertising services [21][22] - New business segments, including food delivery, are showing potential for user conversion and revenue growth, despite initial losses [22][23] Group 4 - JD Health reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 17.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, with adjusted net profit growing by 42% [38][40] - The company is expanding its online healthcare services, enhancing user conversion through online medical insurance payment integration [40][41] - Strategic partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies are expected to strengthen JD Health's market position and product offerings [41] Group 5 - Alibaba has initiated the "Qianwen" project to develop a personal AI assistant app, marking a shift towards consumer-oriented AI applications [42][43] - The project aims to compete directly with ChatGPT, leveraging Alibaba's existing AI infrastructure and models [43][46] - The Qwen model's advancements are expected to enhance the app's capabilities, making it a strong contender in the AI market [46][47]