藏格矿业2024半年报点评：Q2经营回暖，成长仍可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a recovery in operations in Q2 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.05%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.00 billion yuan, down 35.49% year-on-year but up 21.11% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - Despite weaker prices for lithium carbonate and potassium chloride impacting profitability, the strong performance of the Jilong Copper Mine has become the core driver of the company's earnings [6][7]. - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper, which generated a profit of 8.55 billion yuan, accounting for 65.94% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 46.1% year-on-year [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.34 billion yuan from the lithium segment, down 43.39% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 50.28%, a decrease of 31.69 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 93,900 yuan per ton, down 63.9% year-on-year, while the sales cost was 41,300 yuan per ton, slightly down 0.44% year-on-year [6]. - The potassium segment reported a revenue of 1.122 billion yuan, down 32.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.28%, down 15.95 percentage points year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of 53.96 million yuan [6]. Production and Sales - In H1 2024, the company produced 5,809 tons of lithium carbonate, achieving 55.32% of its annual target, with sales of 7,630 tons, reaching 72.67% of the annual target, both showing year-on-year increases of 28.89% and 56.83% respectively [6]. - The potassium chloride production was 522,800 tons, achieving 52.28% of the annual target, with sales of 540,100 tons, reaching 51.83% of the annual target, both showing slight year-on-year declines [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in its copper, lithium, and potassium segments, with the Jilong Phase II project anticipated to start trial production in Q1 2026, potentially increasing annual copper production to 307,000-350,000 tons [7]. - The company is also developing lithium extraction from the Marmicuo Salt Lake, with plans for an initial capacity of 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate [7]. - As the second-largest potassium chloride producer in China, the company is expected to maintain stable profit contributions and cash flow, with future plans for overseas potassium resource projects in Laos [7].