GOLDWIND(002202) 财信证券·2024-08-29 05:20Investment Rating - Buy rating, first coverage [1] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved in H1 2024, with revenue of 20.202 billion yuan, up 6.32% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.387 billion yuan, up 10.83% YoY [4] - Q2 2024 saw a remarkable YoY and QoQ growth in net profit, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.054 billion yuan, up 6251.60% YoY and 216.94% QoQ [4] - The company's profitability has improved due to a decrease in expense ratio and lower steel costs [4] - The sales price of wind turbines has rebounded, and the revenue from wind farm development has grown rapidly [5] - The gross margin of wind turbines and components has significantly recovered, driven by optimized product structure and lower steel prices [6] - Overseas revenue has grown significantly, with international business contributing 47.79 billion yuan, up 83.88% YoY [6] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be 59 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.207 billion yuan [3] - EPS for 2024E is expected to be 0.52 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 15.24x [3] - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was 18.25%, up 5.13 ppts YoY, and the net margin was 7.11%, up 0.03 ppts YoY [4] - The gross margin for wind turbines and components in H1 2024 was 3.75%, up 6.29 ppts YoY [6] Market and Industry Comparison - The company's stock price has outperformed the wind power equipment industry, with a 1-month increase of 3.51% compared to the industry's decline of 9.64% [2] - The company's 12-month performance shows a decline of 13.29%, while the wind power equipment industry declined by 34.27% [2] Future Outlook - The company has external orders totaling 35.6GW as of June 30, 2024, up 26.4% YoY, with 65% of orders for 6MW and above units [6] - Revenue for 2025E and 2026E is projected to be 65.5 billion yuan and 72.5 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.634 billion yuan and 3.141 billion yuan [3] - The target price range is 6.2-9.3 yuan, based on a 10-15x P/E ratio for 2025E [6] Business Segments - Wind turbine and component sales accounted for 12.768 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 0.21% YoY, with sales volume of 5.15GW, down 10.9% YoY [5] - Wind farm development revenue was 4.401 billion yuan, up 31.49% YoY, with 1.01GW of new installed capacity in H1 2024 [5] - Overseas revenue contributed 4.779 billion yuan, up 83.88% YoY, with international business covering 42 countries and cumulative installed capacity of 7,421MW [6]