CMES(SH:601872) Huachuang Securities·2024-08-29 05:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][24]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2024 met expectations, with a reported net profit of 1.42 billion yuan, reflecting a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 14% decrease year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights a solid fundamental outlook for the shipping industry, driven by strong supply constraints and the potential for rising freight rates, which the company is expected to benefit from [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In H1 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 13.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [3]. - Q2 Performance: For Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.98 billion yuan, an 11.6% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 1.8% decrease year-on-year. The net profit for Q2 was 1.12 billion yuan, down 18.4% quarter-on-quarter and 32% year-on-year [3]. - Segment Performance: In H1 2024, the oil transportation segment generated 4.96 billion yuan in revenue (down 3.0% YoY), while the bulk shipping segment saw a 15.4% increase to 3.96 billion yuan. The container shipping segment's revenue decreased by 6.2% to 2.72 billion yuan [3]. - Profitability by Segment: The net profit from oil transportation was 1.67 billion yuan (down 7.7% YoY), while the bulk shipping segment saw a significant increase of 125% to 800 million yuan [3]. Valuation and Forecast - Earnings Forecast: The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 6.14 billion, 8.5 billion, and 9.54 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75, 1.04, and 1.17 yuan [3][4]. - Target Price: The target price is set at 10.4 yuan, representing a 27% upside from the current price of 8.21 yuan [6]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 810 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 32.6% [3].