五芳斋：收入端短期承压，盈利能力改善

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 230 million yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.37 billion yuan, a decline of 16.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year [1] - The product matrix has been enhanced to meet high-end gifting and self-consumption needs, with significant growth in the fresh rice dumpling series [1] - The company has established five direct sales seasonal gift stores and 14 franchise stores to expand its chain development [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 44.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 14.7%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue breakdown for H1 2024 shows that rice dumplings, meals, egg products, and pastries generated 1.33 billion yuan (-16.2%), 70 million yuan (-6.3%), 160 million yuan (-11.6%), respectively [1] - The sales revenue from chain stores, e-commerce, supermarkets, and distributors were 200 million yuan (-10.3%), 370 million yuan (-17.1%), 230 million yuan (-6.9%), and 670 million yuan (-18.3%) respectively [1] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 170 million yuan, 180 million yuan, and 200 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 0.98 yuan [1][2] Financial Forecast - The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is 2.58 billion yuan, 2.74 billion yuan, and 2.90 billion yuan, with growth rates of -2.13%, 6.30%, and 5.79% respectively [2] - The expected gross profit margin for 2024-2026 is 36.3%, 36.6%, and 36.9% respectively [2] - The company anticipates a PE ratio of 20 times, 19 times, and 17 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]