FOTON(SH:600166) Haitong Securities·2024-08-29 07:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.97 billion yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue at 11.1 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was 12.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company experienced a slight decline in overall sales, with a 1.2% year-on-year decrease in product sales to 300,000 units, and a market share of 14.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company's light truck business performed steadily, with sales of 215,000 units in H1 2024, an increase of 4% year-on-year, maintaining a high market share of 17.2% [5] - The overseas business showed strong performance, with exports of 79,000 units in H1 2024, a 30% increase year-on-year, and plans to export 150,000 units in 2024, aiming for a 15% year-on-year growth [6] - The company has successfully implemented cost reduction across the entire value chain, leading to a gross margin of 13.5% in Q2 2024, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 64.5 billion yuan, 71.9 billion yuan, and 77 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 1.1 billion yuan, 1.6 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan for the same years [6][9] - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 0.14 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively [6][9] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be 16.6, 11.1, and 10.1 respectively, with a target valuation range of 2.60 to 2.87 yuan based on a PE of 19-21 times [6][9]