渝农商行：2024年半年报点评：利润增速显著回升，拟实施中期分红

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) [2][3] Core Views - Profit growth has significantly rebounded, with a 5.3% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in H1 2024 [1] - The bank plans to implement an interim dividend, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of around 30% for the past three years [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to narrow its decline, supported by improved deposit costs [2] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 14.7 billion, a YoY decrease of 1.3%, but the decline narrowed compared to Q1 2024 [1] - Net interest income and fee income decreased by 8.0% and 9.4% YoY, respectively, while other non-interest income surged by 47.2% [1] - The cost-to-income ratio continued to decline, reaching 27.2% at the end of H1 2024, down 2.0 percentage points from Q1 2024 [1] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 5.0%, 4.9%, and 4.3% YoY, respectively, in H1 2024 [1] - Corporate loans increased by 8.0% YoY, while personal loans decreased by 0.9%, mainly due to pressure on mortgage loan growth [1] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.19% at the end of H1 2024 [1] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 360%, indicating strong risk resistance capabilities [1] Profit Forecast - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.01, 1.07, and 1.13, respectively [2] - The P/B ratio is 0.5x based on the closing price on August 28, 2024 [3] Balance Sheet and Asset Quality Projections - Total assets are projected to grow from RMB 14.4 trillion in 2023 to RMB 18.4 trillion by 2026 [11] - The NPL ratio is expected to decline from 1.19% in 2023 to 1.02% by 2026 [13] - The net interest margin (NIM) is forecasted to decrease from 1.67% in 2023 to 1.30% by 2026 [13] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to remain at 5x from 2024 to 2026 [12] - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 0.5x in 2024 to 0.4x by 2026 [12]