扬农化工：业绩短期承压，静待行业复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.699 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.36%, and a net profit of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a sluggish market for agricultural chemicals, with prices for pesticide products falling significantly [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of industry demand and the completion of ongoing projects, which will contribute to future revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's raw material prices fell by 23.91%, leading to a revenue drop of 26.40% to 3.323 billion yuan [2]. - The formulation segment saw an 8.39% decline in product prices, resulting in a revenue decrease of 9.95% to 1.204 billion yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.61 percentage points to 24.23% due to falling prices [2]. Market Outlook - The agricultural chemical industry is currently experiencing low demand and high inventory levels, with prices at historical lows [2]. - A recovery in overseas markets is anticipated, which may lead to a rebound in pesticide prices and improved revenue and profit levels for the company [2]. Project Development - The company is progressing with new project capacities, including the Youjia and Liaoning Youchuang projects, which are expected to contribute positively to performance [2]. - The Youjia project has completed its second phase and is ramping up production, while the Liaoning project is in the trial production phase [2]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to be 1.407 billion yuan, 1.665 billion yuan, and 1.922 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.46 yuan, 4.10 yuan, and 4.73 yuan [2][6]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].