索辰科技：民用市场拓展加速，营收高增长可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 76.40 [6][7]. Core Views - The company has accelerated its expansion into the civilian market, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth. The first half of 2024 saw a revenue increase of 140.77% year-on-year, reaching RMB 0.52 billion, although the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of RMB 66.43 million, down 107.31% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is focusing on domestic substitution and expanding into civilian markets, which is anticipated to enhance revenue growth. However, due to delays in order confirmations, profit forecasts have been adjusted downward for 2024-2026 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 52 million, a year-on-year increase of 140.77%. Q2 revenue was RMB 19.89 million, up 38.56% year-on-year but down 37.59% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 was a loss of RMB 45.16 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 260.35% [1][2]. - The company's simulation product development business saw a revenue of RMB 41.29 million in H1 2024, a significant increase of 580.74% year-on-year, primarily driven by accelerated delivery of digital twin project orders. However, the engineering simulation software business experienced a revenue decline of 42.25% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal factors and delayed revenue recognition [2]. Market Expansion - The company has been actively expanding into the civilian market through mergers and partnerships. Notable collaborations include a strategic partnership with Guangzhou Automobile Group and an investment in Suzhou Kunyuan Optoelectronics, aimed at enhancing its presence in the optoelectronics and microelectronics sectors [3][4]. - The acceleration in the civilian market expansion is expected to help the company accumulate benchmark cases, thereby increasing its market reach and driving revenue growth [3]. AI Capabilities - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities, which are expected to improve product efficiency. In H1 2024, the company developed an AI-based generative digital twin that automates the creation of 3D geometric models, significantly speeding up the design and modeling processes [4]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to RMB 4.56 billion, RMB 6.29 billion, and RMB 8.36 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 0.89, RMB 1.33, and RMB 1.95 [1][5]. Valuation Metrics - The average PS for comparable companies in 2024 is projected at 14.9x, leading to a target price of RMB 76.40 for the company based on a similar valuation multiple [1][5].