SUN PAPER(002078) 光大证券·2024-08-29 11:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company achieved a steady revenue growth of 6.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 20.52 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.76 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 40.5% year-on-year [4][8] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the paper manufacturing sector, particularly in non-coated cultural paper and boxboard, which saw revenue increases of 7.3% and 14.1% respectively [5][6] - The report notes a decline in revenue for the pulp segment, attributed to reduced sales volumes [6][8] Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 20.52 billion yuan, with a breakdown of revenue from various segments: non-coated cultural paper (7.02 billion yuan), coated paper (2.12 billion yuan), household paper (1.04 billion yuan), laminated base paper (440 million yuan), and boxboard (5.20 billion yuan) [4][5] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 10.34 billion yuan, marking an 8.4% year-on-year increase [4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 17.6%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower inventory costs for wood pulp and reduced energy prices [7][8] - The report indicates that the company maintained strict control over operating expenses, with a period expense ratio of 6.9%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Projections - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward to 42.20 billion yuan, 49.56 billion yuan, and 55.83 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 7%, 10%, and 11% [8] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised to 3.39 billion yuan, 4.35 billion yuan, and 4.90 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.21 yuan, 1.56 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [8] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading comprehensive supplier of paper and pulp products in China, with a total pulp and paper production capacity exceeding 12 million tons [8]