SF Holding(002352) 华创证券·2024-08-29 11:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for SF Holding (002352) with a target price of 49.7 yuan, implying a 50% upside potential from the current price [1][3] Core Views - SF Holding's Q2 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.9 billion yuan, up 18% YoY, exceeding expectations [1] - The company's H1 2024 revenue grew 8.1% YoY to 134.4 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue increasing 9.1% YoY to 69.1 billion yuan [1] - SF Holding's express delivery business showed resilience, with time-sensitive express revenue growing 5.6% YoY to 59.2 billion yuan, outpacing GDP growth [1] - The company's logistics and heavy goods division contributed 4.8 billion yuan in net profit, up 16.4% YoY, with a net profit margin improving to 5% [1] Financial Performance - SF Holding's H1 2024 net profit margin improved to 3.6%, with Q2 net profit margin reaching 4.2% [1] - The company's gross margin in Q2 2024 increased by 1.3 percentage points YoY and QoQ to 14.5% [1] - SF Holding's H1 2024 operating cash flow reached 26.6 billion yuan, with free cash flow of 13.5 billion yuan [11] Business Segments - Time-sensitive express delivery: 59.2 billion yuan revenue, +5.6% YoY [1] - Economy express delivery: 13.3 billion yuan revenue, +9.3% YoY [1] - Freight: 17.6 billion yuan revenue, +16.1% YoY [1] - Cold chain: 5.1 billion yuan revenue, -5.2% YoY [1] - Same-city delivery: 4.0 billion yuan revenue, +18.5% YoY [1] - Supply chain and international business: 31.2 billion yuan revenue, +8.1% YoY [1] Strategic Outlook - SF Holding aims to optimize its domestic product matrix, enhance cost efficiency, and improve customer experience [1] - The company is accelerating its international network layout, leveraging its Asian advantages to build a second growth curve [1] - The Ezhou hub has opened 55 domestic and 13 international routes, serving over 30 clients across high-end industries [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report raises SF Holding's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts to 9.86 billion, 11.71 billion, and 13.91 billion yuan respectively [1] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is projected at 2.1, 2.4, and 2.9 yuan, with P/E ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x [1] - SF Holding's target market capitalization is estimated at 239.5 billion yuan based on 2024 forecasts [1]