BYD(002594) 华创证券·2024-08-29 11:44Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][10]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit, suggesting a strong operational momentum heading into the second half of 2024 [1]. - The report anticipates a favorable product mix and increased profitability per vehicle in the upcoming quarters, driven by new model launches and a robust order backlog [1]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, reflecting a positive outlook on revenue and net profit growth [1]. Financial Summary - Q2 revenue reached 176.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41%. For the first half of 2024, revenue totaled 301.1 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 18.7%, remaining stable year-on-year but down 3.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for the first half was 20.0%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 9.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 98%. For the first half, net profit was 13.6 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects to achieve sales of over 1 million vehicles in Q3, supported by a strong product lineup and market demand [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 717.3 billion yuan, 880.0 billion yuan, and 1,000.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 23%, and 14% [1]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 36.3 billion yuan, 47.4 billion yuan, and 56.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21%, 30%, and 20% [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 12.48 yuan, 16.28 yuan, and 19.54 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1].