海尔智家2024Q2点评：内外销盈利提效

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Haier's Q2 performance shows profit improvement despite flat revenue, with a focus on external sales growth in emerging markets and potential recovery in domestic sales due to "trade-in" policies [7][8] Revenue Analysis - Q2 revenue reached 66.645 billion yuan (+0.13%), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 5.647 billion yuan (+13.15%) and non-recurring net profit at 5.521 billion yuan (+12.57%) [4] - For H1, total revenue was 135.623 billion yuan (+3.03%), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 10.420 billion yuan (+16.26%) [4] - Domestic sales showed a decline of 5% year-on-year in Q2, while external sales grew by 3%, with significant growth expected in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [4][5] Profit Analysis - Operating profit margins for both domestic and external sales improved, with Q2 gross margin at 32.3%, up 0.2% year-on-year [5] - Q2 net profit margin was 8.47%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [5] Cash Flow and Contract Liabilities - Q2 operating cash flow increased by 12.09% year-on-year, amounting to 6.093 billion yuan [6] - As of the end of H1, contract liabilities were 3.256 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease [6] New Capacity Investment - The company plans to invest 2.494 billion yuan in a new air conditioning production project in Qingdao, expected to start in September 2024 and complete in phases by December 2027 [7] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 278.55 billion yuan, 293.81 billion yuan, and 309.17 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders forecasted at 19.123 billion yuan, 21.853 billion yuan, and 24.440 billion yuan [8]