HAIDILAO(06862) 光大证券·2024-08-29 12:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862 HK) [4][6] Core Views - Haidilao's 2024 H1 revenue reached RMB 21 491 billion, up 13 8% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined 9 7% YoY to RMB 2 038 billion [4] - The company's overall and same-store turnover rates improved to 4 2 times/day, up 0 9 and 0 8 times/day YoY respectively [4] - Haidilao's "Pomegranate Plan" aims to open 400-500 new stores for its "Yanqing BBQ" brand within 3 years, representing a strategic shift in brand expansion [5] - The multi-store management model has been implemented, with over 100 store managers overseeing more than 200 stores as of July [5] Financial Performance - Haidilao's 2024 H1 gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, while employee costs increased as a percentage of revenue [5] - The company's net profit margin declined 2 5 percentage points YoY to 9 5%, impacted by unfavorable exchange rate movements and the expiration of tax incentives [5] - Revenue breakdown for 2024 H1: Haidilao restaurants (RMB 204 14 billion, +14% YoY), other restaurants (RMB 1 82 billion, +74% YoY), delivery (RMB 5 81 billion, +23% YoY), and condiments/ingredients (RMB 2 99 billion, -19% YoY) [4] Market Data - Haidilao's current market capitalization stands at HKD 68 783 billion, with a total of 5 574 billion shares outstanding [2] - The stock's 1-year performance shows a 37 10% relative decline and a 39 52% absolute decline [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to RMB 46 020 billion, RMB 50 494 billion, and RMB 54 284 billion respectively [7] - Net profit projections for 2024-2026 are revised to RMB 4 469 billion, RMB 5 106 billion, and RMB 5 565 billion [7] - The current PE ratio stands at 14x for 2024, with projected EPS of RMB 0 80, RMB 0 92, and RMB 1 00 for 2024-2026 [6] Operational Highlights - Haidilao operated 1,343 stores as of 2024 H1, with 1,320 in mainland China and 23 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [4] - Same-store sales growth varied by region: tier 1 cities (+11%), tier 2 cities (+14%), tier 3 and below cities (+20%), and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan (+2%) [4] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 5 5 to RMB 97 4, with regional variations: tier 1 cities (-RMB 6 2), tier 2 cities (-RMB 5 0), tier 3 and below cities (-RMB 4 7), and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan (-RMB 7 8) [4]