太阳纸业：24H1业绩符合预期，关注旺季纸价表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 2024 H1 revenue of 20.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.758 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.49% [1] - The company benefits from a raw material advantage due to its integrated forestry-pulp-paper model, which has helped improve its gross margin [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity with projects in Guangxi and Laos, contributing to revenue growth [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024 H1, the company achieved a revenue breakdown by product: non-coated cultural paper (7.018 billion yuan, +7.27%), coated paper (2.120 billion yuan, +34.29%), and corrugated box paper (5.202 billion yuan, +14.12%) [1] - The gross margin for various products in 2024 H1 was as follows: non-coated cultural paper (17.99%), coated paper (17.89%), and corrugated box paper (14.57%) [1] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 8.57%, an increase of 2.10 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 42.282 billion yuan, 45.871 billion yuan, and 49.023 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 8.5%, and 6.9% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.409 billion yuan, 3.889 billion yuan, and 4.267 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 10.5%, 14.1%, and 9.7% [3] Key Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.90, 8.67, and 7.90, respectively [2][3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 16.2% in 2024 to 16.6% in 2026 [3]