PJRC(600395) 中泰证券·2024-08-31 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Panjiang Co Ltd (600395 SH) [1] Core Views - Coal business is expected to recover in H2 2024 with improved profitability due to increased production and sales volume [1] - Power generation business has shown strong performance with new projects coming online [1] - The company's profitability is expected to improve in 2025-2026 with revenue growth of 18% and 11% respectively [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 H1 revenue was 4 046 billion yuan down 23 63% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company was 37 million yuan down 93 98% YoY [1] - 2024E revenue is forecasted at 8 844 billion yuan down 6% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue is expected to grow 18% to 10 393 billion yuan [1] Coal Business - Coal production in H1 2024 was 2 43 million tons down 30 14% YoY [1] - Coal sales volume was 4 07 million tons down 24 65% YoY [1] - Average coal price in H1 2024 was 835 yuan/ton up 9 32% YoY [1] - Coal cost was 644 yuan/ton up 19 64% YoY [1] Power Business - Power generation in H1 2024 was 1 408 billion kWh up 14 86% YoY [1] - New power projects contributed significantly to profit growth [1] - Power sector became a new profit driver for the company [1] Valuation - 2024E EPS is forecasted at 0 18 yuan [1] - Current P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 29 6X 15 8X and 15 2X respectively [1] - P/B ratio remains stable at 1 0X for 2024-2026 [1] Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to improve from 3% in 2024E to 6% in 2025E and 2026E [1] - Gross margin is forecasted to recover to 28 3% in 2025E from 24 6% in 2024E [3] - Net margin is expected to increase from 4 4% in 2024E to 7 0% in 2025E [3]