NHPM(601882) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-08-31 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue of 9.22 billion yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.13%, despite a decline in net profit due to reduced government subsidies [3][4]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2024 was 28.28%, a slight decrease of 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to accounting adjustments [3]. - The report highlights the company's resilience and strength as a leading domestic machine tool manufacturer, with a focus on import substitution and international expansion as key growth drivers [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 3,177 million yuan - 2023A: 3,323 million yuan - 2024E: 3,585 million yuan - 2025E: 4,008 million yuan - 2026E: 4,600 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 16%, 5%, 8%, 12%, and 15% respectively [3][4]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 521 million yuan - 2023A: 609 million yuan - 2024E: 656 million yuan - 2025E: 742 million yuan - 2026E: 877 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 40%, 17%, 8%, 13%, and 18% respectively [3][4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 1.00 yuan - 2023A: 1.17 yuan - 2024E: 1.26 yuan - 2025E: 1.42 yuan - 2026E: 1.68 yuan [3][4]. - Valuation Ratios: - P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 19.7 in 2022 to 11.7 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [3][4]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution for high-end CNC machine tools due to increased export restrictions from developed countries [3][4]. - The company is also expanding its international presence, with new subsidiaries established in Singapore, Thailand, and Germany, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [3][4].