淮河能源：盈利增长显著，未来装机增量可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth, with a notable increase in installed capacity expected in the future. The growth in revenue and net profit is primarily driven by increased power generation and the release of newly injected capacity [1][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the continuous injection of coal and electricity assets from the parent group, as well as the high growth in electricity demand in Anhui Province [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.822 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.74%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 575 million yuan, up 58.94% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items reached 525 million yuan, a 100.89% increase [1]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.15 yuan, reflecting a 50% year-on-year growth. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 5.10%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was 1.268 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 279.90% year-on-year [1]. Future Earnings Projections - The company is expected to see EPS of 0.26, 0.27, and 0.30 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 14.0, 13.4, and 11.9 times [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the years 2024 to 2026 are 28.060 billion yuan, 28.921 billion yuan, and 29.769 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 2.7%, 3.1%, and 2.9% [5]. Dividend Policy - The company has a stable cash position, with a dividend payout ratio of 55% in 2023. It plans to distribute at least 30% of the average distributable profits over the past three years in cash over the next three years, depending on annual profitability and funding needs [2].