涪陵榨菜：费用率上升拖累利润，期待成本红利释放

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Fuling Zhacai (002507 SZ) with a target price of 12 05 [1] Core Views - Fuling Zhacai's H1 2024 revenue reached 1 306 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2 32%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 448 million yuan, down 4 74% year-on-year [1] - The company's Q2 2024 revenue was 557 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3 37%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 177 million yuan, down 15 58% year-on-year [1] - Pickled mustard tuber revenue remained stable at 1 118 billion yuan, up 0 49% year-on-year, while radish revenue declined significantly by 39 42% to 24 million yuan [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 49 18% in Q2 2024 due to lower raw material costs, and cost benefits are expected to accelerate in H2 2024 [1] - Fuling Zhacai is expected to see revenue growth of 3% in 2024, 9% in 2025, and 9% in 2026, with net profit growth of 1%, 15%, and 9% respectively [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to be 2 522 billion yuan in 2024, 2 750 billion yuan in 2025, and 2 991 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - Net profit is expected to reach 837 million yuan in 2024, 960 million yuan in 2025, and 1 048 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - EPS is forecasted at 0 73 yuan in 2024, 0 83 yuan in 2025, and 0 91 yuan in 2026 [1] - The company's P/E ratio is estimated at 16 6x in 2024, 14 5x in 2025, and 13 3x in 2026 [1] Regional Performance - In H1 2024, South China contributed 363 million yuan in revenue, East China 210 million yuan, Central China 165 million yuan, North China 148 million yuan, and Northwest China 120 million yuan [1] Operational Highlights - The company optimized its dealer network, reducing the number of dealers by 424 to 2,281 in H1 2024 [1] - Fuling Zhacai's new products, such as pickled mustard tuber sauce, and expansion in the catering channel are expected to drive future growth [1] - The company's sales and management expense ratios increased in Q2 2024, impacting profitability [1]