TKGF(601233) 东海证券·2024-08-31 03:04Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 showed significant recovery, with Q2 revenue stabilizing. H1 2024 revenue reached 48.215 billion yuan, up 30.67% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.065 billion yuan, up 911.35% YoY. Q2 revenue was 27.103 billion yuan, up 28.38% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 485 million yuan, down 16.31% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in investment income from Zhejiang Petrochemical [4] - The company's polyester filament products experienced both volume and price increases, with production and sales continuing to rise. H1 2024 production of polyester filament reached 6.36 million tons, with sales of 5.87 million tons and a sales-to-production ratio of 92.4%. The average selling prices of POY/FDY/DTY increased by 1.69%/2.03%/2.06% YoY, respectively [4] - The company is further enhancing its integrated industrial chain layout, with several key projects progressing smoothly. Current PTA/polyester filament production capacity stands at 10.2/13.5 million tons, and the company is expanding its capacity and market share during the industry's cyclical upturn [4] - The price difference for polyester filament remained strong, and the industry structure is improving under the leadership of major players. In H1 2024, there were no new capacity additions in the polyester filament industry, and the price difference for POY/FDY/DTY was 1,230/1,780/2,730 yuan/ton as of July, with industry profitability expected to gradually improve [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue growth is expected to slow down, with projected revenue growth rates of 12.61%, 7.02%, and 6.03% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 203.91%, 46.19%, and 21.78% for the same periods [5] - The company's profitability is improving, with gross margins expected to rise from 5.06% in 2023A to 6.86%, 7.22%, and 7.39% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively. Net margins are also expected to increase from 0.99% in 2023A to 2.67%, 3.65%, and 4.19% in the same periods [6] - ROE is projected to increase from 2.25% in 2023A to 6.44%, 8.68%, and 9.65% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, indicating improving returns on equity [6] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 35.97 in 2023A to 11.84, 8.10, and 6.65 in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, reflecting a more attractive valuation [5] - The P/B ratio is also expected to decline from 0.81 in 2023A to 0.76, 0.70, and 0.64 in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, indicating a lower valuation relative to book value [6]