SHCI(SH:601225) Guohai Securities·2024-08-31 03:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in production and sales, with coal production reaching 86.41 million tons in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, and sales volume of 131.55 million tons, up 2.29% year-on-year [3][4] - The company reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with operating income at 84.74 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 10.56 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.109 yuan per share, totaling 1.056 billion yuan, which accounts for 10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [7] Production and Sales - The company's coal production and sales have shown steady growth, with July production at 13.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.73%, and self-produced coal sales at 13.63 million tons, up 0.56% year-on-year [3][4] - The average selling price of coal decreased by 11.33% year-on-year to 575 yuan per ton, impacting profit margins [6] Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant reduction in investment losses, with fair value losses of 640 million yuan in the first half of 2024, compared to 2.66 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [4][6] - Forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are 159.8 billion yuan, 164.9 billion yuan, and 170.2 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 21.165 billion yuan, 22.651 billion yuan, and 24.079 billion yuan [8][10] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.18 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.95 [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22% in 2024, decreasing to 21% in the following years [10]