SEAMILD FOODS(SZ:002956) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-08-31 03:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The core view indicates that the company's main business in oats continues to grow rapidly, with ongoing innovation in product categories and channels [1] - The revenue for H1 2024 reached 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 70 million yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights a slight adjustment in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to rising costs, with expected net profits of 130 million yuan, 160 million yuan, and 190 million yuan for the respective years, representing year-on-year growth of 14.0%, 21.6%, and 19.5% [1] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company's pure oats, composite oats, and cold oat products generated revenues of 370 million yuan, 440 million yuan, and 70 million yuan respectively in H1 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 58.4%, and 19.7% [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and developing high-value-added products such as composite oats and yogurt grain toppings [1] Channel Development - Offline channels grew over 25% year-on-year, driven by competitive advantages in traditional KA and AB class supermarkets [1] - The snack channel saw over 130% growth, while O2O business on platforms like JD Daojia and Meituan doubled [1] - Online channels experienced a growth rate exceeding 55%, with traditional e-commerce platforms maintaining stable growth and interest e-commerce platforms like Douyin seeing a 109% increase in GMV [1] Financial Metrics - In Q2 2024, the gross margin decreased by 2.38 percentage points to 40.86%, primarily due to rising raw material costs for Australian oats [1] - The net profit margin decreased by 3.04 percentage points to 5.26% in Q2 2024, with sales and management expense ratios declining due to refined management practices [1] - The report anticipates that as product structure improves, gross margins may increase, leading to a gradual recovery in net profit margins [1] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 1.976 billion yuan, 2.366 billion yuan, and 2.780 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 25.3%, 19.7%, and 17.5% [2] - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.59 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 0.86 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.9, 15.6, and 13.0 [2][3]