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天味食品:底料需求承压,食萃势能延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.468 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 247 million RMB, up 18.79% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the demand in the off-season is under pressure, but the online segment continues to contribute growth, particularly through the "Shicui" brand [1]. - The company is expected to stabilize and recover its performance in the second half of the year, driven by its leading position in the hot pot base market [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 614 million RMB, down 6.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 71 million RMB, down 10.9% year-on-year [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 63 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.07% [1]. Operational Analysis - The hot pot base product faced significant demand pressure during the off-season, while the lobster base product performed well due to seasonal sales [1]. - Online sales grew significantly by 57.37% in Q2, while offline sales decreased by 15.32% [1]. - The company added 33 distributors in Q2, bringing the total to 3,183, with a focus on quality over speed in expansion [1]. Profitability Improvement - The gross margin in Q2 was 33.33%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and reduced promotional activities [1]. - The report notes a decrease in sales and management expense ratios, with advertising expenses rising by 29% year-on-year [1]. - Investment income decreased by 59% year-on-year in Q2, but the adjusted net profit margin showed a slight increase [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report lowers the profit forecast for 2024 by 6% to 10% due to demand pressures, projecting net profits of 520 million RMB, 600 million RMB, and 670 million RMB for 2024-2026, respectively [1]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 21x, 18x, and 16x for the same period [1].