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周黑鸭:公司研究报告:短期业绩承压,以提升门店质量为核心目标

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4]. Core Views - The company aims to enhance store quality as its core objective, focusing on the new consumption environment and piloting "dual-purpose stores" [4][5]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.26 billion HKD, a year-over-year decrease of 10.97%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 33 million HKD, down 67.65% year-over-year [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - In 2024H1, self-operated stores generated revenue of 697 million HKD (YOY -7.21%), franchised stores generated 327 million HKD (YOY -19.81%), online channels generated 177 million HKD (YOY -17.06%), and other revenues amounted to 57.35 million HKD (YOY +40.02%) [4]. - The total number of stores reached 3,456, a decrease of 250 stores year-over-year, with self-operated stores at 1,735 (up 193) and franchised stores at 1,721 (down 443) [4]. Store Types and Locations - The company has 268 self-operated stores in transportation hubs (up 111) and 80 franchised stores (up 13) [5]. - In commercial areas, there are 928 self-operated stores (up 81) and 1,083 franchised stores (down 302) [5]. - The company is piloting "dual-purpose stores" in Wuhan and surrounding areas, with 127 such stores established by the end of June 2024 [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023-2025 are 2.56 billion HKD, 2.74 billion HKD, and 2.94 billion HKD, respectively, with net profits of 100 million HKD, 166 million HKD, and 222 million HKD [6][7]. - The expected EPS for the same period is 0.04 HKD, 0.07 HKD, and 0.10 HKD [6][7]. Valuation - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 16-20 times for 2025E, leading to a fair value range of 1.12-1.40 HKD per share, which translates to 1.24-1.56 HKD per share when converted at an exchange rate of 0.90 [7].