LI AUTO(02015) 国盛证券·2024-08-31 04:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (02015 HK) with a target price of HKD 88 and a target market cap of RMB 1712 billion, corresponding to 14x 2025 P/E [2] Core Views - Li Auto demonstrated resilience in Q2 2024 with 109k units sold, up 25% YoY and 35% QoQ, despite intense competition [1] - Q2 revenue reached RMB 31 68 billion, up 11% YoY, with a gross margin of 19 5% (vehicle gross margin at 18 7%), exceeding expectations [1] - Q2 GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1 1 billion, down 52% YoY but up 86% QoQ, with a net margin of 3 5% [1] - The company expects Q3 2024 deliveries of 145-155k units, up 38 0%-47 5% YoY, and revenue of RMB 39 4-42 2 billion, up 13 7%-21 6% YoY [1] - Li Auto is rapidly advancing its autonomous driving capabilities, with OTA6 0 launched in July 2024, achieving a 99% penetration rate for smart driving features and over 1 11 billion km of NOA cumulative mileage [1] Business Outlook - Li Auto plans to expand its charging network to 2000+ supercharging stations and 10000+ supercharging piles by the end of 2024 [2] - The company expects to launch its first pure electric vehicle (excluding MEGA) in the first half of 2025, supported by improved infrastructure [2] - The proportion of car city stores increased to 31% by June 2024, up from 24% at the end of 2023, with a target to reach nearly 50% by year-end [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Li Auto's 2024-2026 sales at 500k, 630k, and 820k units, with total revenue of RMB 143 billion, RMB 169 2 billion, and RMB 220 3 billion, respectively [2] - GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 7 7 billion, RMB 10 4 billion, and RMB 13 9 billion for 2024-2026, with net margins of 5 4%, 6 2%, and 6 3% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach RMB 10 1 billion, RMB 12 2 billion, and RMB 16 billion for 2024-2026, with net margins of 7 1%, 7 2%, and 7 3% [2] Operational Highlights - Li Auto's Q2 2024 vehicle ASP decreased to around RMB 280k due to product mix changes [1] - The company's R&D and SG&A expense ratios narrowed QoQ due to economies of scale, but increased YoY due to investments in product expansion and technology [1] - City NOA daily active users increased nearly 8x, and average city NOA mileage per vehicle increased nearly 3x [1]