中远海控：绕航消耗运力，盈利环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 101.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 16.9 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [1]. - The significant improvement in profitability is attributed to multiple factors including preemptive inventory replenishment in Europe and the US, growth in emerging market cargo volumes, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, leading to increased demand and insufficient effective supply in the container shipping market [1]. - The container shipping business generated revenue of 97.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, also a 10% year-on-year increase, with gross profit rising 17% to 22.3 billion yuan [2]. - The Shanghai export container freight index rose by 138% year-on-year, while the China export container freight index increased by 35% [2]. - Container throughput in the terminal business reached 69.86 million TEUs, an 8% year-on-year increase, driven by a recovering global trade environment and supportive policies for foreign trade [3]. Financial Summary - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised upwards to 40.5 billion yuan for 2024 and 20.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a new estimate of 13.7 billion yuan for 2026 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.54 yuan for 2024, 1.31 yuan for 2025, and 0.86 yuan for 2026 [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 4.93 for 2024, 9.54 for 2025, and 14.58 for 2026 [5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 420.94 billion yuan in 2024, with total liabilities at 156.51 billion yuan [9].