证券研究报告 交通运输 交易"运价弹性"与"供应链重塑" 2026 年 3 月 15 日│中国内地 专题研究 交易"运价弹性"与"供应链重塑"，配置具备安全边际个股 中东局势步入相持阶段，我们认为市场主线将进一步聚焦伊朗局势升温对全 球运输体系的重塑：一方面，霍尔木兹海峡、红海等关键航道的不确定性上 升，或引发全球运力重新配置和运价重估；另一方面，油价中枢抬升将直接 推高航空、公路及快递等子行业成本。在此背景下，我们建议沿"运价弹性" 和"供应链重塑"两条思路布局，航线运力被迫重新部署和调配，战争风险 溢价和供应链扰动有望推升运价中枢，重点推荐中远海控 AH、海丰国际； 进口煤价格上涨叠加公路运输成本攀升，有望催化"西煤东运"需求，推荐 大秦铁路、铁龙物流。此外，避险情绪下，建议配置高股息/中东敞口低且 估值较低个股，看好皖通高速 A、深圳国际、顺丰控股 AH。 航空：等待油价企稳，景气向上不变；机场：枢纽建设或迎良机 华泰研究 26 年春节假期民航量价齐升。据交通部，春运 40 天（2/2-3/13）民航发送 旅客量农历同增 4.6%，同时据航班管家，国内经济舱平均票价同增 3.9%。 短期关注伊朗局势及油 ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The battery swapping model is achieving "time-saving, labor-saving, worry-free, and more profitable" results, with Cao Cao Mobility planning to deploy 100,000 Robotaxi vehicles by 2030 [3][13] - EHang Intelligent expects to achieve full-year GAAP profitability in 2026, with order volume, production capacity, and profitability milestones validating the commercialization of eVTOL [3][15] - The U.S. Department of Transportation and FAA have launched an eVTOL integration pilot program, with eight projects selected to commence real operational testing in the summer of 2026 [3][16] - Cathay Pacific has raised fuel surcharges, reflecting the transmission of oil price shocks to ticket prices [3][18] - Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly stagnant due to escalating U.S.-Iran conflicts, increasing shipping risks and oil prices [3][29] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [4][31] - The shipping and port sector shows an increase in container shipping rates and dry bulk freight rates, while oil shipping rates have decreased [4][43] - In express logistics, the volume of express deliveries increased by 2.30% year-on-year in December 2025, with revenue up by 0.70% [4] - In aviation, the average daily international flights in the second week of March 2026 were 1,750.29, down 2.92% month-on-month but up 7.12% year-on-year [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways increased by 40.64% week-on-week from March 2 to March 8 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-altitude economy and autonomous driving trends, recommending companies like CITIC Heli and Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Monitor opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly in oil, dry bulk, and container shipping, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [5] - Explore international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Keep an eye on investment opportunities in high-speed rail and highways, recommending Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Dynamic monitoring of aviation investment opportunities, recommending China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 15 日 红利资产配置需求提升，油运中期逻辑仍向好 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，关注海峡实际通行情况；基础设施方面，高油价推升滞 胀预期，红利资产凸显配置价值；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势； 快递方面，关注 26 年行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3262.4 | 2.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3064.5 | 3.0 | 行业指数 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—地缘 风险溢价嵌入油轮运价体系，关注红 利资产防御价值》2026-03-08 2、《招商交通运输行业周报—美以 伊爆发军事冲突，油轮市场紧张程度 急剧上升（20260301）》2026-03-02 3、《2026 春运民航上半程数据跟踪 —上半程需求快速增长，收益水平企 稳回升》2026-02-24 王春环 S1090524060003 wangchunhuan@cmschin ...

中远海控A股（601919.SH）近期股价呈现震荡走势。截至2026年3月12日收盘，股价报15.94元，当日上 涨1.21%，成交额20.16亿元；港股（01919.HK）同日收报15.90港元，上涨0.76%。资金流向方面，3月 12日A股主力资金净流出1430.77万元，散户资金净流入4534.35万元。大宗交易方面，3月11日出现平价 成交117万股，金额1842.75万元。近一周股价区间振幅达6.18%，3月9日一度触及16.24元高点。 财报分析 公司2025年三季报显示，前三季度营收1675.99亿元，同比下降4.09%；归母净利润270.70亿元，同比下 降29.0%。第三季度单季营收584.99亿元，同比下降20.42%，净利润95.33亿元，同比下降55.14%，业绩 呈现先增后降趋势。下滑主要受全球贸易需求走弱、运价波动影响，CCFI指数均值同比降21.99%。当 前市盈率（TTM）为6.42，市净率1.05，估值低于行业平均水平。 机构观点 来源：经济观察网 招商证券2025年11月报告指出，中远海控三季度业绩环比修复明显，单季净利润环比增长63%。分析师 认为，中美贸易关系缓和及港口 ...

航运概念+俄乌冲突概念+高股息精选+中字头股票+一带一路 1、根据2025年2月11日互动易：中远海控通过旗下上海泛亚航运有限公司（以下简称"泛亚航运"）开展 国内集装箱海运业务。截至到2024年年底，泛亚航运经营32条中国内贸航线（含沿海支线），市场份额 稳居内贸市场前列。泛亚航运经营128条珠江、长江和渤海湾支线，网络覆盖两江沿岸超200个服务驳 点。 2、俄乌冲突升级或将导致进出口贸易转向其他国家，带来平均运输距离的变化，贸易再平衡状态或将 较为混乱，导致包括运输在内的价格上涨。公司主营业务为集装箱航运业务和码头业务。中远海运港口 有限公司港口的码头组合遍布中国沿海的五大港口群、欧洲、南美洲、中东、东南亚及地中海等主要海 外枢纽港。 3月12日，中远海控涨1.21%，成交额20.16亿元，换手率1.01%，总市值2440.84亿元。 异动分析 该股筹码平均交易成本为14.57元，近期筹码快速出逃，建议调仓换股；目前股价在压力位16.98和支撑 位15.12之间，可以做区间波段。 4、公司为中字头股票，公司实控人为国资委或中央国有企业或中央国家机关。 5、主营集装箱航运、干散货航运、码头和集装箱租赁,公司 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-03-12 主要船司紧急燃油附加费公布，关注3月下半月运价修正情 况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK13周报价1400/2240；HPL3月下半月船期报价介于2735-4035美元 /FEU，4月份上半月船期报价2735/4535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 3月下半月船期报价1640/2740；ONE 3月下半月2590/4035，4月份船期价格2603/4041； HMM 上海-鹿特丹 3月份上半月船期报价1333/2236。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹3月份下半月船期报价介于3193-5193美元/FEU；EMC 3月下半月船期报价 1865/2830；OOCL 3月份下半月船期报价介于2280-4030美元/FEU。 地缘端：伊拉克国家通讯社：伊拉克官员表示，石油港口已"完全停运"，但在油轮遇袭后，商业港口仍保持正常 运营。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2026年2月28日。2026年至今交付集装箱船舶27艘，合计交付运力174232TEU。 12000-16999T ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the near - term contract EC2604, as it approaches delivery, the volatility is expected to be magnified due to the game between shipping companies' price - holding expectations under high geopolitical risks and the actual prices under weak off - season cargo volume. It is recommended that investors closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [6][7]. - For the relatively peak - season contracts in June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [8]. - The strategy suggests no unilateral operation for now and recommends a long EC2606 and short EC2610 arbitrage [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 10, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 59,241.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 91,438.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 is 1848.90, EC2605 is 1908.00, EC2606 is 2170.00, EC2607 is 2277.70, EC2608 is 2157.60, EC2609 is 1587.10, EC2610 is 1459.20, and EC2512 is 1782.90 [9]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1452 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1940 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2717 US dollars/FEU. On March 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1545.46 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1121.22 points [9]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 86,000 TEU, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU has been delivered, with a capacity of 17,148 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4][5]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of March is 320,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 362,300, 341,900, 293,100, and 285,400 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April is 324,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15, 16, 17, and 18 are 361,400, 239,900, 404,500, and 294,000 TEU respectively. There were 8 blank sailings in March (3 by the OA Alliance, 1 by the Gemini Alliance, and 4 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (by the OA Alliance). There are 2 TBNs in April [5]. 3.4 Supply Chain - After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies tried to hold prices in the off - season. Maersk set the price for the second week of the second half of March at 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU (equivalent to 1600 - 1700 points in SCFIS), and MSC's online quote for the second half of March is 2740 US dollars/FEU (100 US dollars/FEU higher than the first half). YML updated its price for the first week of the second half of March to 2700 US dollars/FEU. CMA announced an emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) of about 150 US dollars/TEU (equivalent to about 200 points on the futures market) for European routes starting from March 23. Two large ships were transferred from the Middle East route to the Asia - Europe route, increasing the supply - side pressure and potentially affecting European line freight rates. Maersk's quote for the last week of the second half of March is 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU, the same as the previous week [6]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade is relatively high, with the container trade volume in most months having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports due to concerns about future inflation, which could drive up China's export demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the expectation of a global economic recession caused by a large increase in oil prices [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector, specifically recommending "Buy" for COSCO Shipping Holdings and "Add" for Daqin Railway [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on global transportation systems, particularly through rising oil prices and disruptions in shipping routes. It emphasizes that if the situation persists, it could lead to a permanent restructuring of global trade routes and increased transportation costs [6][11]. - The report identifies specific companies that may benefit from these changes, including COSCO Shipping, which is expected to see short-term increases in freight rates and potential long-term shifts in global trade routes [6][11]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The report notes that approximately 31% of global oil exports are affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant increase in shipping rates. VLCC rates have surged to historical highs, with rates from the Middle East to China reaching $475,000 per day, a 118.2% increase from late February [20][67]. Air Transportation - Rising oil prices are expected to increase airline operating costs, with a projected increase of 7.3% to 14.7% in fuel costs depending on oil price scenarios. However, Chinese airlines may benefit from increased demand on European routes as a result of geopolitical shifts [7][72][73]. Rail Transportation - The China-Europe Railway Express is anticipated to see a rise in both volume and pricing due to the increased value of rail transport as an alternative to maritime shipping. The report suggests that rail transport could attract more high-value, time-sensitive goods as oil prices rise [8][9]. Road Transportation - The report indicates that rising fuel costs will pressure road freight rates, with potential shifts from road to rail for price-sensitive goods. The impact of high oil prices may also accelerate the adoption of new energy logistics vehicles in the long term [9][11]. Container Shipping - The report predicts a reversal in market expectations for container shipping, with rates expected to rebound due to disruptions in Middle Eastern routes. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has already seen an increase of 11.7% since late February [39][40]. Bulk Shipping - The report anticipates a moderate increase in bulk shipping rates due to rising demand for iron ore and coal as China resumes operations post-holiday. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is expected to reflect these changes, with a potential increase in rates [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors within the industry [3]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risk premiums are embedded in tanker freight rates, with a focus on the defensive value of dividend assets [1]. - The shipping market is under pressure due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a tightening of the tanker market and increased freight rates [16]. - Infrastructure assets are expected to see valuation recovery, with a recommendation to select stocks that offer dividend benefits [19]. - The air travel sector is experiencing a growth trend in demand, but caution is advised regarding the impact of rising oil prices on profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery in demand growth, with potential for valuation improvement as competition stabilizes [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is experiencing a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, with specific routes seeing significant price increases [12][16]. - The SCFI index shows a weekly increase, with notable rises in rates for routes to the US and Europe [32]. - The report suggests focusing on shipping stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy, COSCO Shipping Holdings, and others for potential investment opportunities [16]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a significant increase in truck traffic, with a 229.7% week-on-week growth, although year-on-year comparisons show a decline [17][19]. - Port throughput has increased by 25.2% week-on-week, indicating a recovery trend despite a year-on-year decline [19]. - Recommended stocks in the infrastructure sector include Anhui Expressway, Tangshan Port, and Qingdao Port, which are seen as stable cash flow assets [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery sector is witnessing a rebound in demand, with a 424.9% increase in collection volume week-on-week [21]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, suggesting that regulatory support may enhance price stability and improve stock performance for leading companies [21]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express, Yunda Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from operational optimizations [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is experiencing a growth in passenger volume, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% during the Spring Festival period [25]. - However, rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions pose a risk to profitability, necessitating caution [25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil price trends and their potential impact on airline stocks [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the upward trend in freight rates, particularly in oil shipping, and recommends focusing on highway investments as a safe haven [1][4] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in international routes and a favorable demand environment, with a focus on major airlines and low-cost carriers [4][5] - The logistics and express delivery sectors are seeing improvements in operational quality due to anti-competitive measures and technological advancements [6][7] Summary by Sections Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from March 2 to March 6 showed a decrease in flight numbers for major airlines, but year-on-year comparisons indicate growth [4][5] - Average aircraft utilization rates also declined week-on-week, but showed positive year-on-year growth [4][5] - The report notes a significant increase in Brent crude oil prices, impacting airline stock prices negatively, but anticipates recovery as geopolitical tensions ease [4][5] Shipping Data Tracking - The report indicates a clear upward trend in shipping rates, particularly in oil shipping, with significant increases in relevant indices [6][7] - The BDTI index for oil shipping rose by 54.14% week-on-week and 248.35% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and limited supply [6][7] - The report suggests that geopolitical conflicts may reshape global shipping dynamics, presenting investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks significant increases in freight traffic across highways, railways, and ports, indicating a recovery in logistics activity [6][7] - The express delivery sector is expected to see continued growth driven by anti-competitive policies and advancements in automation [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong operational performance and growth potential in the logistics sector [6][7] Infrastructure Investment Insights - The report recommends investing in highway infrastructure due to rising demand and favorable economic conditions [6][7] - It highlights specific companies in the highway sector that are expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects and stable cash flows [6][7]