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山东黄金:金价上行推动业绩提升,自产金增量可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on performance and market conditions [3]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 showed significant growth, with operating revenue reaching 45.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.90%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.383 billion yuan, up 57.24% [1]. - The increase in performance is attributed to the acquisition of Shanjin International, which significantly boosted gold production, alongside a rise in gold prices, with the average price of Au9999 in the Shanghai Gold Exchange increasing by 20.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 45.773 billion yuan, a 66.90% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.383 billion yuan, reflecting a 57.24% increase [1]. - The gold production for the first half of 2024 was 24.52 tons, a 25.28% increase year-on-year, with Shanjin International contributing 4.16 tons [1]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is likely to support high gold prices, which recently peaked at over 2530 USD per ounce [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the trend of de-dollarization in emerging markets are expected to increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a gold production target of no less than 47 tons for 2024, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 estimated at 3.948 billion, 5.558 billion, and 6.335 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.88, 1.24, and 1.42 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4].