山西汾酒2024Q2点评：淡季主动控货蓄势

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 7.408 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.06%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.147 billion yuan, up 10.23% year-on-year [4] - For the first half of 2024, total revenue reached 22.746 billion yuan, an increase of 19.65%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 8.410 billion yuan, up 24.27% year-on-year [4] - The revenue for Q2 2024 was in line with market expectations [4] Revenue Analysis - In Q2 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end and other liquor products grew by 1.5% and 58.3% year-on-year, respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor's revenue share decreasing by 9.8 percentage points to 62.0% [5] - The company is expected to adjust its product structure during the off-season, with inventory reduction for the Qinghua series leading to a slowdown in growth [5] - Revenue from domestic and external markets grew by 11.2% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively, with external revenue accounting for 62.0% of total revenue, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [5] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 75.09%, primarily due to a shift in product structure [6] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 29.13%, down 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation, emphasizing the company's proactive inventory control to maintain channel health and the promotion of the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" model to enhance channel management [7] - The company aims to achieve a 20% revenue growth target for the year, which is considered highly credible [7] - Adjustments to profit forecasts have been made due to slower recovery in business scenarios influenced by the macro environment and a slight decline in product structure [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 38.415 billion yuan, 45.289 billion yuan, and 52.811 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.3%, 17.9%, and 16.6% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.900 billion yuan, 15.337 billion yuan, and 18.143 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 23.6%, 18.9%, and 18.3% [8]