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源杰科技:2024年半年报点评:需求回暖助力营收同比增长,数通高端光芯片进展可期

Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating [1][3] Core Views - Revenue growth driven by industry demand recovery, with H1 2024 revenue reaching 120 million yuan, up 95.96% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company declined by 44.56% YoY to 10.75 million yuan, mainly due to a significant reduction in government subsidies [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to parent company increased by 129.97% YoY to 9.47 million yuan [1] - Telecom market revenue grew 94.61% YoY to 110 million yuan, driven by recovery in demand and product line expansion [1] - Data center and other business revenue increased 111.27% YoY to 10.49 million yuan, supported by recovery in traditional data communication market orders and shipment of CW light sources for high-speed optical modules [1] - Gross margin for telecom business was 29.99%, while data communication business achieved a gross margin of 77.59% [1] - Silicon photonics CW light source for high-end data communication optical modules began shipping in H1 2024, expected to benefit from AI-driven demand [1] - Ongoing development in high-end data communication products, including 100G PAM4 EML and 200G PAM4 EML chips [1] - Forecasted net profit attributable to parent company for 2024-2026 is 150 million yuan, 251 million yuan, and 371 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50x, 30x, and 20x [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue expected to grow from 144 million yuan in 2023 to 828 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 166.1% in 2024 [2][5] - Net profit attributable to parent company projected to increase from 19 million yuan in 2023 to 371 million yuan in 2026 [2][5] - EPS forecasted to rise from 0.23 yuan in 2023 to 4.35 yuan in 2026 [2][5] - Gross margin expected to improve from 41.88% in 2023 to 64.23% in 2026 [5] - ROE projected to increase from 0.92% in 2023 to 13.53% in 2026 [5] Industry and Product Development - Telecom market recovery and product line expansion driving revenue growth, particularly in 2.5G and 10G DFB orders [1] - High-end 10G EML products gaining traction with customers, contributing to revenue growth [1] - Silicon photonics CW light source technology positioned to benefit from AI-driven demand due to its high integration, low cost, and low power consumption [1] - Ongoing R&D in high-end data communication products, including 100G PAM4 EML and 200G PAM4 EML chips, with potential for future breakthroughs [1]