CYPC(SH:600900) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-31 08:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Changjiang Electric Power (600900) with a target price of 34.32 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 33.42 CNY [4][9]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2024 showed significant growth, driven by a substantial increase in electricity generation, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% in domestic hydropower generation [9][15]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in electricity generation for Q3 2024, supported by favorable water inflow conditions in the Yangtze River basin [9][14]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend payout, with an estimated dividend of approximately 1.0 CNY per share for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of about 2.9% at the target price [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 34.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.4 billion CNY, up 27.9% [9][10]. - Q2 2024 revenue reached 19.2 billion CNY, reflecting a 23.0% year-on-year growth, while net profit for the same period was 7.4 billion CNY, up 40.4% [9][10]. Electricity Generation - The report highlights that the significant increase in Q2 2024 performance was primarily due to a substantial rise in electricity generation, with domestic hydropower generation reaching 67.9 billion kWh [9][15]. - The inflow of water into the reservoirs, particularly the Three Gorges and Wudongde, was notably higher, with inflow volumes increasing by 11.4% and 36.9% year-on-year, respectively [9][10]. Valuation and Market Conditions - The report suggests that the company's stable cash dividend characteristics are increasingly valuable in a declining interest rate environment, enhancing its relative value [9][10]. - The current risk-free interest rate is in a downward trend, which may provide further room for the company's required dividend yield to decrease [9][10].