龙湖集团：多元化业务支撑业绩，债务结构逐步优化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46.86 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [2] - The development business continues to face pressure, while diversified operations support performance; inventory reduction needs to accelerate, and the debt structure is improving [2] - The company’s sales for the first half of 2024 were 51.1 billion yuan, a decline of 48.1%, with over 90% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue breakdown for H1 2024: Development business revenue was 33.76 billion yuan (down 32.3%), operational business revenue was 6.61 billion yuan (up 4.3%), and service business revenue was 6.49 billion yuan (up 11.1%) [2] - The overall gross margin was 20.6%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 6.9 percentage point drop in the development business margin to 7.4% [2] - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 10.93 billion yuan, 11.61 billion yuan, and 13.25 billion yuan respectively [2] Debt and Cash Flow - As of June 2024, the company’s total debt was 187.4 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 56.7% and a cash-to-short-debt ratio of 1.01 times [2] - The average loan term is 9.2 years, indicating a stable financial condition [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company plans to open approximately 10 new shopping malls in the second half of 2024, with a total of 91 malls in operation by mid-2024 [2] - The report suggests that despite current market pressures, the company is expected to maintain steady long-term growth due to its diversified business model [2]