BTBP(600161) 华福证券·2024-08-31 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 23.77 yuan [4] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 revenue reached 2.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 726 million yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 1.619 billion yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 409 million yuan, up 34.3% year-on-year [2] - The company's plasma collection volume reached 1,294 tons in H1 2024, a 15% year-on-year increase, maintaining a leading position in the domestic industry with a 20% market share [2] - Core product gross margins improved significantly, with albumin gross margin at 52.6% (+8.4 ppts year-on-year) and immunoglobulin (including chromatography) gross margin at 57.5% (+11.4 ppts year-on-year) [2] - The company's R&D pipeline is progressing well, with several products in clinical trials or awaiting approval, providing strong momentum for future growth [2] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.34/1.56/1.83 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21%/16%/18% respectively [2] - The 2024-2026 P/E ratios are estimated at 35/30/26X, based on the current market capitalization [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 5.18 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.62 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from 1.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.83 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18% [3] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 8.7% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2026, driven by profitability and efficiency gains [6] Product and Market Analysis - The company's albumin revenue declined by 6.9% year-on-year to 1.113 billion yuan in H1 2024, while immunoglobulin (including chromatography) revenue grew 22.0% to 1.339 billion yuan [2] - The company's plasma collection strategy, including regional grid management and new media utilization, has been effective in driving growth [2] - The company's chromatography-based immunoglobulin product is expected to see significant market expansion, contributing to future revenue growth [2] R&D and Pipeline - The company's subsidiary, Chengdu Rongsheng, has obtained approval for its chromatography-purified fibrinogen product and passed GMP compliance checks [2] - Several other products, including subcutaneous immunoglobulin and recombinant coagulation factors, are progressing well in clinical trials [2] - The company's R&D pipeline includes multiple products in advanced stages, such as human prothrombin complex and coagulation factor IX, which have received clinical trial approvals [2]