TECON(002100) 民生证券·2024-08-31 11:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.99 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, but turned a profit with a net profit of 280 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year [1] - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year but up 11.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 220 million yuan, marking a significant recovery with a 311.8% increase from the previous quarter [1] - The feed business saw a volume increase of 7.6% year-on-year, with revenue of 2.84 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year, while the animal health business remained stable with a revenue of 500 million yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [1] - The pig farming segment turned profitable, with sales of 1.401 million pigs in H1 2024, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, and an average selling price of 14.4 yuan/kg, up 2.0% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s cash reserves reached 2.86 billion yuan as of H1 2024, a 6.7% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery in financial stability [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 2024 was 1.11 billion yuan, turning positive from a negative position, reflecting improved profitability in pig farming [2] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stood at 51.1% as of H1 2024, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points, indicating a relatively low level of financial risk [2] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 698 million yuan, 1.132 billion yuan, and 1.548 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.51 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 1.13 yuan [3][2] - The projected PE ratios for the same years are 13, 8, and 6 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2]