太平鸟点评报告：存货周转向好，静待改革成效

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.15 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million yuan, down 31.7% year-on-year [2] - The women's clothing segment is still under adjustment pressure, while men's and children's clothing are developing steadily [3] - The self-operated channel is under pressure due to a weak retail environment, but adjustments in franchise stores are expected to lead to a rebound [4] - Inventory turnover has improved, but operating cash flow has been negatively impacted by declining profits [5] - The gross margin has improved, reflecting upward brand strength, although profit margins are temporarily under pressure due to rigid expenses [6] - Future profit forecasts indicate a potential net profit of 410 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of -2.4%, and an expected increase to 480 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 16.4% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, a decrease of 31.7% [2] - Q2 revenue was 1.34 billion yuan, also down 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 12 million yuan, down 62.9% [2] Segment Analysis - Women's clothing revenue decreased by 10.3% to 1.18 billion yuan, men's clothing down 6.7% to 1.27 billion yuan, children's clothing down 14.0% to 390 million yuan, and LEDIN down 35.2% to 250 million yuan [3] - The number of stores closed in H1 2024 included 149 self-operated stores, 487 franchise stores, and 53 LEDIN stores [4] Channel Performance - Revenue from self-operated channels decreased by 19.2% to 1.41 billion yuan, while franchise revenue decreased by 5.2% to 830 million yuan [4] - The gross margin for self-operated channels improved by 1.2 percentage points to 71.6%, while franchise channels saw a decline of 2.9 percentage points to 44.2% [4] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory decreased by 21% year-on-year to 1.38 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days improving by 43 days to 188 days [5] - Operating cash flow net amount decreased by 93% to 20 million yuan due to rigid expenses despite declining revenue [5] Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin in Q2 2024 was 57.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 0.9% [6] - Future profit projections suggest a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 12X, and 11X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]