通威股份：双龙头地位稳固，收购润阳完善一体化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.13 billion yuan [1] - The company continues to lead in the polysilicon market with a sales volume of 228,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.82%, and a global market share exceeding 25% [1] - The company is expected to enhance its market share further through the acquisition of Runyang Co., which has a polysilicon capacity of 130,000 tons [1] - The company is also focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in its battery cell segment, with a significant increase in TNC battery production capacity [1] - The company’s module sales reached 18.67 GW, a year-on-year increase of 108.4%, expanding its influence in overseas markets [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 24.2 billion yuan, also down 41% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.34 billion yuan [1] Operational Analysis - The company’s polysilicon production capacity is expected to reach 850,000 tons by the end of the year, with new projects in Yunnan and Baotou [1] - The company is advancing its cost reduction strategies, maintaining industry-leading costs despite falling polysilicon prices [1] - The company has completed the transformation of its 38 GW PERC capacity and is expected to exceed 100 GW in TNC capacity by year-end [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to -4.66 billion yuan, 3.83 billion yuan, and 6.66 billion yuan respectively [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's competitive advantages in the silicon and battery segments and growth potential in the module segment [1]