RTGF(605133) 光大证券·2024-08-31 13:11Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 21.72 (18x 2024E PE) [1][3] Core Views - 1H24 performance fell short of expectations due to forex losses from the Mexican factory, with revenue up 24.98% YoY to RMB 1.149 billion and net profit up 18.00% YoY to RMB 86 million [1] - Gross margin improved to 23.54% in 1H24, driven by cost reductions and increased sales from a global new energy client [1] - Overseas business expanded, with revenue from the Mexican factory up 19.8% YoY to RMB 210 million, and a new Thai subsidiary established with RMB 400 million investment [1] - New energy business is a key growth driver, with breakthroughs in integrated die-casting and structural components [1] - Fine management and cost optimization are expected to enhance profitability [1] Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue reached RMB 1.149 billion, accounting for 39% of the full-year forecast, while net profit was RMB 86 million, 34% of the full-year forecast [1] - 2Q24 revenue increased 32.42% YoY and 25.06% QoQ to RMB 638 million, with net profit up 17.26% YoY and 3.47% QoQ to RMB 44 million [1] - Gross margin in 2Q24 improved to 25.40%, up 1.23 ppts YoY and 4.19 ppts QoQ [1] - 2024E/2025E/2026E net profit forecasts were revised down by 13%/8%/14% to RMB 223 million, RMB 295 million, and RMB 361 million, respectively [1] Overseas Expansion - The Mexican factory reported a net loss of RMB 11.38 million in 1H24, a 54.5% YoY increase due to forex losses [1] - The Thai subsidiary is expected to strengthen global market presence and improve supply chain integration with global OEMs [1] New Energy Business - The company is focusing on new energy vehicle components, including integrated die-casting and structural parts, with new projects secured in 1H24 [1] - Key technologies in die-casting and material processing have been mastered, positioning the company for long-term growth in the new energy sector [1] Cost Optimization - The company has designated 2024 as the "Year of Quality Improvement," aiming to enhance operational efficiency and cost control [1] - Fine management and production optimization are expected to further improve profitability [1] Valuation and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 2.615 billion, with net profit of RMB 223 million [1][6] - 2025E revenue is expected to reach RMB 3.662 billion, with net profit of RMB 295 million [1][6] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at RMB 4.614 billion, with net profit of RMB 361 million [1][6]