GED(000539) Xinda Securities·2024-08-31 13:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in fuel costs has effectively offset the downward pressure on electricity prices, allowing for continued growth in both traditional and renewable energy sectors [1][2]. - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 shows a decrease in operating revenue by 7.98% year-on-year, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 903 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.42% [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to optimize its electricity market trading strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of falling electricity prices [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 26.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 903 million yuan, up 5.42% year-on-year [1]. - The coal power segment contributed a net profit of 306 million yuan, while the gas power segment contributed 144 million yuan [1]. - The overall gross profit margin improved by 2.24 percentage points year-on-year due to a decrease in operating costs in the coal power segment [1]. Power Generation Segments - The coal power segment continues to grow with ongoing investments, while the gas power segment has seen an increase in generation capacity [1][3]. - As of June 2024, the company had a total installed capacity of 19.89 million kilowatts for coal power and 10.19 million kilowatts for gas power [1]. - The report notes that the company is expected to see significant growth in electricity sales due to increasing demand in Guangdong [1]. Renewable Energy Growth - The renewable energy segment has shown considerable growth, with wind power capacity increasing by 600,000 kilowatts and solar power capacity by 234,500 kilowatts in H1 2024 [3]. - The company plans to expand its renewable energy capacity significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a target of 14 million kilowatts [3]. - The report indicates that the company’s cash flow from traditional power generation will support the development of renewable energy projects [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 1.448 billion yuan, 1.819 billion yuan, and 2.287 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48.6%, 25.6%, and 25.7% [3][4]. - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating based on the company's advantages in both traditional and renewable energy sectors and the high growth rate of electricity demand in Guangdong [3].