Guolian Sec(SH:601456) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-31 13:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.13 yuan, corresponding to a 1.75x price-to-book ratio for 2024 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance has returned to normalcy, with improvements in talent investment and business transformation becoming evident. The acquisition of Minsheng Securities has entered a substantive phase, which is expected to bolster long-term development [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.09 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan for H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 40% and 85% respectively. However, Q2 net profit was 310 million yuan, a significant recovery from Q1's loss of 220 million yuan [5]. - The decline in investment income, which fell by 61% year-on-year, was the primary reason for the overall performance drop, contributing to 81% of the decline. Q2 investment income showed significant improvement, recording 530 million yuan, down only 11% year-on-year, compared to a loss of 150 million yuan in Q1 [5]. - The integration of Minsheng Securities is expected to enhance the company's comprehensive strength, potentially positioning it among the top 20 in the industry, with anticipated synergies in regional and business complementarity [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial performance for 2024E includes projected revenues of 2.524 billion yuan and a net profit of 620 million yuan, with EPS estimates of 0.22 yuan [11][14]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 27.355 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 2.832 billion shares [7]. - The company’s net asset value per share is 6.32 yuan, with a current price-to-book ratio of 1.5 [8]. Performance Trends - The company’s stock price has fluctuated between 9.38 and 12.66 yuan over the past 52 weeks, indicating a relative stability in the market [7]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in brokerage business performance compared to peers, with a 16% year-on-year increase in agency sales revenue [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued improvements in the company’s financial metrics, with expected revenue growth rates of 8.2% and 8.9% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [14]. - The company is expected to maintain its brokerage market share at 0.50% through 2026, indicating a stable competitive position [13].