YILI(600887) 中邮证券·2024-08-31 14:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The company has passed the peak pressure point for liquid milk inventory, with expectations for both revenue and profit to improve moving forward [3][4]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 599.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.49% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.44% to 75.31 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue is primarily due to inventory reduction in liquid milk and slow sales in cold beverages, which have negatively impacted profits [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company's gross margin was 35.02%, and net profit margin was 12.57%, showing improvements of 1.65 and 3.04 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The company experienced a significant increase in investment income, amounting to 26.28 billion yuan, primarily from the sale of a subsidiary [4]. - Credit impairment losses rose to 4.54 billion yuan, reflecting increased provisions due to cautious assessments of upstream partners [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2024, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold beverages, and other products was 368.87 billion yuan, 145.09 billion yuan, 73.22 billion yuan, and 4.06 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The revenue for liquid milk decreased by 13.05% year-on-year, while milk powder and dairy products saw a growth of 7.31% [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the second half of 2024 will see improved performance in the liquid milk segment as inventory pressures ease and marketing expenses stabilize [6]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 1197.91 billion yuan, 1249.49 billion yuan, and 1290.36 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of -5.06%, 4.31%, and 3.27%, respectively [6][8]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 121.68 billion yuan, 113.01 billion yuan, and 124.91 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.68%, -7.13%, and 10.53% [6][8].