NKY(300109) 国泰君安·2024-08-31 14:39Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price adjustment to 15.29 yuan [1][4] Core Views - Q2 performance declined sequentially, in line with expectations, with PVP sales showing stable growth over the past 8 years, solidifying its leading position [1] - Revenue for 24H1 was 735 million yuan, down 5.68% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 213 million yuan, down 18.79% YoY [4] - Q2 revenue was 340 million yuan, down 18.24% YoY and 13.83% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 92 million yuan, down 35.64% YoY and 24.59% QoQ [4] - Gross margin and net margin for Q2 were 57.06% and 27.24%, respectively, with gross margin increasing by 3.57 pct QoQ and net margin decreasing by 3.39 pct QoQ [4] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, increasing the proportion of high-end products, and maintains a leading position in the global PVP industry [4] - New projects, including a 10,000-ton pharmaceutical-grade PVP and 2,000-ton PVP-I project, are progressing, with PVP-I revenue up 69.96% YoY in 24H1 [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022A was 1,486 million yuan, increasing to 1,583 million yuan in 2023A, and is projected to reach 2,996 million yuan by 2026E [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 291 million yuan in 2022A, increasing to 493 million yuan in 2023A, and is projected to reach 686 million yuan by 2026E [3] - EPS for 2022A was 0.60 yuan, increasing to 1.02 yuan in 2023A, and is projected to reach 1.42 yuan by 2026E [3] - ROE was 9.3% in 2022A, increasing to 13.9% in 2023A, and is projected to reach 13.5% by 2026E [3] - PE ratio was 18.33 in 2022A, decreasing to 10.83 in 2023A, and is projected to reach 7.79 by 2026E [3] Industry and Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the global PVP industry, ranking first in China and third globally [4] - PVP is widely used in pharmaceuticals, industrial applications, food, and daily chemicals, with the company's competitive advantage expected to strengthen [4] Growth and Expansion - The company is expanding its capacity and upgrading its product matrix, with new projects expected to drive future growth [4] - PVP-I revenue increased by 69.96% YoY in 24H1, and the company's R&D capabilities are highlighted by the growth of its Oricid series products [4] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is adjusted to 15.29 yuan based on a 2024 PE of 16X, reflecting the company's growth prospects and industry position [4] - The current price is 10.95 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 10.57-23.70 yuan [6]