YTO(600233) 华创证券·2024-08-31 15:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.57 billion with a year-on-year growth of 20.6% in the first half of 2024, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion, up 6.8% year-on-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the industry's demand growth as a highlight within the domestic demand sector, suggesting that the trend of "anti-involution" will benefit the performance elasticity of express delivery companies [1]. - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with expected net profits of 4.39 billion, 5.02 billion, and 5.72 billion for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 1.27, 1.46, and 1.66, and PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 respectively [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.14 billion, a 21.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.04 billion, reflecting a 9.4% increase year-on-year [1][7]. - The express delivery business generated a net profit of 2.09 billion in the first half of 2024, marking a 13.48% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company completed a business volume of 12.2 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.81% [1]. Business Segmentation - Express delivery revenue reached 29.2 billion, up 19.8% year-on-year, while freight forwarding revenue increased by 37.4% to 1.98 billion, and air transport revenue grew by 24.9% to 770 million [1]. - The report highlights a focus on refined management and cost reduction, with significant improvements in operational efficiency and cost per ticket [1]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at 19 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current price of 15.26 yuan [1][3]. - The valuation method applied is a 15 times PE on the expected net profit for 2024, leading to a market capitalization estimate of 66 billion [1].