Guolian Sec(SH:601456) Soochow Securities·2024-08-31 17:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2024 showed significant improvement compared to Q1, with a focus on the effectiveness of subsequent integration [1] - The company's heavy asset business saw a rebound in proprietary trading in Q2, while net interest income remained under pressure [2] - The light asset business performed well, with brokerage and asset management businesses standing out, while investment banking business followed market trends [2] - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities has been finalized, and the integration process is accelerating, which is expected to enhance the company's overall strength [2] - The company's Q2 performance rebounded rapidly, leading to a slight upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.91%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 88 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 85.39% [2] - In Q2 2024, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 912 million yuan and 306 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 19.16% and 22.01% [2] - The company's proprietary trading business revenue in H1 2024 was 375 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61%, but improved significantly in Q2, with a year-on-year decrease of 11% to 525 million yuan [2] - The company's net interest income in H1 2024 was -89 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 201%, with Q2 net interest income at -62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 287% [2] - The company's brokerage business revenue in H1 2024 was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with Q2 revenue at 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 58% [2] - The company's asset management business revenue in H1 2024 was 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111%, driven by the acquisition of Zhongrong Fund and the opening of Guolian Asset Management [2] - The company's investment banking business revenue in H1 2024 was 169 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40%, mainly due to tightened equity financing regulations [2] Acquisition and Integration - On August 8, 2024, the company announced its intention to acquire 99.26% of Minsheng Securities' shares through the issuance of A shares, with a transaction price of 29.492 billion yuan [2] - The company plans to raise no more than 2 billion yuan in supporting funds by issuing shares to no more than 35 specific investors [2] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's comprehensive strength through synergies with Minsheng Securities [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 403 million yuan, 842 million yuan, and 989 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -40.03%, 109.16%, and 17.51% [2] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.11 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, respectively [2] - The current market value corresponds to PB valuations of 1.53x, 1.34x, and 1.30x for 2024-2026 [2] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 9.66 yuan, with a one-year low/high of 9.29/13.38 yuan [4] - The PB ratio is 1.50x, with a circulating A-share market value of 23.079 billion yuan and a total market value of 27.355 billion yuan [4] Fundamental Data - The company's net asset per share is 6.45 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 80.05% [5] - The total share capital is 2.83177 billion shares, with circulating A-shares of 2.38913 billion shares [5]