GTC(000589) 华创证券·2024-08-31 18:07Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 6.72 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 met expectations, with revenue reaching 5.174 billion CNY, a YoY increase of 16.51%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 427 million CNY, a YoY increase of 25.67% [1] - The release of production capacity at the Vietnam base drove steady growth in production and sales, with tire production and sales reaching 4.7942 million and 4.7175 million units respectively, a YoY increase of 18.81% and 19.75% [1] - Overseas revenue grew significantly, reaching 2.109 billion CNY, a YoY increase of 41.32%, supported by the Vietnam base [1] - The company's product structure continues to optimize, with innovations in non-road tires and plans to invest 228 million USD in Vietnam to build a 6 million unit semi-steel tire capacity, further enhancing global competitiveness [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.65% and a net profit margin of 8.29%, with Q2 gross margin and net profit margin at 19.19% and 8.05% respectively, showing a slight decline due to rising raw material and shipping costs [1] - Domestic and overseas gross margins were 15.90% and 23.96% respectively, with overseas margins declining more significantly due to shipping costs [1] - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 were adjusted to 8.73/11.40/14.56 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.2x/6.2x/4.9x [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company has optimized its product portfolio, including the successful launch of 57-inch giant tires and the development of new wide-body dump truck tires, enhancing its market competitiveness [2] - The Vietnam base's semi-steel tire production is expected to fill the company's product gap and expand market space, further consolidating its global competitiveness [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 11.071 billion CNY in 2024 to 14.310 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.9% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 873 million CNY in 2024 to 1.456 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 27.7% [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to recover to 22.1% by 2026, with ROE improving to 14.6% [6]