LZLJ(SZ:000568) Huaxin Securities·2024-09-01 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1] Core Views - The company's profit slightly missed expectations, with tax burden impacting performance [1] - Revenue growth remains stable, but profit margins are under pressure due to increased tax burden [6] - The company is expected to leverage its brand strength and strategic planning to maintain market share [8] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, total revenue reached 16.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.028 billion yuan, up 13.22% [6] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 88.57%, with a net margin of 47.60%, reflecting a slight decrease in net margin compared to the previous year [6] - The company reported a revenue of 16.839 billion yuan from liquor sales, accounting for 99.61% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 88.65% [5] Product and Market Analysis - The product structure has slightly adjusted, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reaching 15.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.12% [5] - The average price per ton for mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 6.84% to 71.48 thousand yuan/ton, while sales volume increased by 25.71% [5] - The company experienced rapid revenue growth in overseas markets, with emerging channels showing significant improvement in profitability [7] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 10.07, 11.76, and 13.81 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [8] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15.0% in 2024 and 15.5% in 2025 [10]